LANKA BANGLA FINANCE: A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS
OBJECTIVE:
The purpose of this analytical article is to discuss all aspects of lanka bangla finance including fundamentals, technical aspects, sponsors, future projection and prospect. There is no intension to give a buy or sell signal. Only aim is to give investors possible all informations for safe investment.
Fundamental Information:
Paid-up capital: 531 Million BDT
General shareholder: 271 Million BDT
Lot: 500x10; Available lot for trading: 54200
EPS: 15.62 x2 = 31.2
NAV: 68 (after Q2)
PE: 16.28
HISTORICAL DATA:
DIVIDENT: 2009: 15% cash, 20% B
2008: 15% cash, 15% B
2007: 15% cash, 10% B
EPS: 2009: 17, 2008: 10, 2007: 6 (rounded)
PE at year end: 2009: 22; 2008: 22; 2007: 16
NAV: 2009: 39, 2008: 20; 2007: 15
SPONSORS:
One bank, STS group, Sampath Bank of Srilanka, Gulf financial and owners of Apollo hospitals Dhaka. STS group and Apollo owners are same……genuine professional businessmen……committed for good transparent governance.
ANALYSIS:
1. In the month of January, its price was 307tk…………….grows positively upto record date of year end declaration to 450……..then price adjustment to 350…………stable for one month……………..again started to growing……………..reaching to 520 and last one month in between 500-530.
2. Average of last 3 years, year end PE ratio is 21, let us conservative and take year end PE as 18. PE before record date was 26.
3. Projected year end EPS would be at least 32.
4. Estimated price at December 31, 2010 = 18 x 32= 576
5. Estimated price at next record date= 22 x 32= 700 (approx.)
6. Share price is now at sideways and in reality slightly downwards, but see Bollinger band is almost squeezing and price surge or hike is just waiting…………..no chance that price will fall below 490
1. In the month of January, its price was 307tk…………….grows positively upto record date of year end declaration to 450……..then price adjustment to 350…………stable for one month……………..again started to growing……………..reaching to 520 and last one month in between 500-530.
2. Average of last 3 years, year end PE ratio is 21, let us conservative and take year end PE as 18. PE before record date was 26.
3. Projected year end EPS would be at least 32.
4. Estimated price at December 31, 2010 = 18 x 32= 576
5. Estimated price at next record date= 22 x 32= 700 (approx.)
6. Share price is now at sideways and in reality slightly downwards, but see Bollinger band is almost squeezing and price surge or hike is just waiting…………..no chance that price will fall below 490
NEWS DESK:
Lanka Bangla securities, a 99.99% owned subsidiary is waiting for listing……..so far I know indicative price is 250, so IPO price may be 280.
They will offload 30 million share. Present NAV of LBS is 30 tk. Profit in each share 250 tk. Total gain will be 250 x 30 million= 7500 million= 750 crore.
Total capital of LBS will be 55+30 crore=85 crore.
So LBF will be direct gainer of (750x55)/85=485 crore. Net gain just from book building (direct) per share of LBF= 485/5.5=88.
When, lank bangla securities will come in market, its minimum price will be 350. So, 55 crore tk share holding (owned by LBF) of lanka bangla securities will be at market value of 1650 crore. Therefore, gain per share would be 300 tk.
Conclusion, when lanka bangla securities will come in market, LBF per share would be gainer of at least 300+88=388tk.
Inference: With present and historical trend of LBF, it can be assumed its price would around 650tk by mid-february.
After enlistment of Lanka bangla securities, its price could be upto 800-900 depending on overall market scenario. And if market condition is favourable, 1000 will not be a dream…………….I believe it will happen before next June.
(Have nice time, good bye for next 10 days, let me know your views)
5 comments:
Great analysis with real data. Thanks to you again for your nice post.
Fatima Madam, If you add 2-3 price and volume charts in this article then it would me more worthy. If you allow me then I can add 2-3 charts in this article. Thanks.
Please add 2 price chart, then it will be more lively. I tried, even I copied a TA chart from www.biasl.com for lankabangla finance, but i could not attach that. And let me know how to attach that, please
Thanks, I have been add 3 charts of Lanka Bangla Finance Ltd. I have also sent one mail (with screenshot) to you that, how do you attach image in the post, please check your inbox.
ma'm would like to do me favour please?
*"5. Estimated price at next record date= 22 x 32= 700 (approx.)"
How did the Value "22" come?
*"Total capital of LBS will be 55+30 crore=85 crore. So LBF will be direct gainer of (750x55)/85=485 crore."
what is an LBS and how 55 came?
*"55 crore tk share holding (owned by LBF) of lanka bangla securities will be at market value of 1650 crore. Therefore, gain per share would be 300 tk."
i could not understand the line, what was the relation between the sum 1650 crore and 300tk? How did 1650 come?
please help me out, i'm a beginner but i want to know how to analyse before invest and how to avoid the risks. I did all the requirement related to the accounts and momeny is ready to be invested thoug it's a small amount but i want to start. :)
i'll be very grateful to you.
Thanks :)
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